Managing Expectations

I screwed up at work this week.  I screwed up badly.  I had limited resources and in the ensuing hustle to get my task done a couple of reagents were switched in the research samples I was preparing; the QC failed, and the data I got was meaningless.  I scrambled to schedule the repeat in a timely fashion, which kept my manager happy, and to my utmost relief no-one screamed “Fire that nerd!” 

I thought back to Saturday’s game against DC United, after which I heard “Fire Yallop”, “Yallop sucks” and “Hire Bradley”.  Given the fans’ proximity to the field, I had no doubt that Frank, the coaches and the players all heard the calls hurled in his direction after the 2-0 loss. Given the limited resources Yallop had available on Saturday, going into the DC game I wasn't expecting much from the team in terms of cohesiveness.  So when the team took a 2-0 loss, I accepted it much more easily than the late equalizers and meltdowns I’d seen earlier in the season.  My acceptance of this game’s result really came down to the team’s performance matching my pre-defined expectations.

So what are my expectations for the 2011 San Jose Earthquakes?  After my failure at work I found myself without any numbers to crunch, and worked my mad data analysis skills on another metric: MLS team salary. On the ESPN web site I found my data set: the list of average MLS team salaries.  I fired up the spreadsheet and sorted out the eighteen teams into the order of their average salary.  My working hypothesis was that teams’ performance (points) is directly related to their average salary ($).  Forgive me – Nerdy by name, nerdy by nature. 

Extremely dodgy statistical data.

Leading the pack are New York and LA, with their average salary skewed by the number of highly paid DPs on their squads, and both of these teams are well on their way to the playoffs – so far so good with my hypothesis.  Sorting the list based on salary (in blue) the Quakes would be expected to be the third worst team in the league: 16^th of 18 teams.  In fact, if the teams are ranked by points obtained (08/02/2011; in pink) then the Quakes rank 13^th out of the 18 teams – so they’re playing somewhat better than might be expected based on their salary.   

My “$$$=points” hypothesis really took a beating when I looked at the under- and over-performing MLS teams.  I can only imagine how unfulfilled the Chicago and Toronto fans must be feeling, paying their players the 3^rd and 4^th highest average wage, and yet only ranking 16^th and 17^th in points order.  FC Dallas and Colorado are by far the best value for money, and as MLS Champions I now feel compelled to do further research to discover how the Rapids achieve such success with an average salary budget only $5K more than that of the Quakes.  But isn’t that the nature of true research?  The scientist sets out on the quest for an answer, only to raise several more questions along the way.   

Dodgy salary statistics aside, going into the season everybody was expecting the Quakes team to make the playoffs: the fans came to the Great Deluge opener in an optimistic frame of mind after the 2010 playoffs, and the club had already printed a playoff ticket in our season ticket packs, the price of which would be refunded if we didn’t.  With the loss to DC our playoff chances diminished, and the team is running out of games to achieve that goal.  This week I heard the fans warming up their vocal chords to let the manager and the organization know that our expectations are not being met.